Impactful consequences of the current crisis
The coronavirus has taken an unprecedented toll on the travel industry. At the time of writing, every single actor has been taking concrete actions and cutting costs to keep their head above water. As a hotelier, you have most likely had to make fast and difficult choices to shelter your business from the crisis, involving an immediacy factor often leaving you with nose to the grindstone, unable to craft a long-term strategy. However, even though the top priority should obviously be keeping your business afloat, it is impossible to achieve a lasting recovery without thinking ahead to the future of our industry. And once we reach the end of this tunnel, which probably will not be soon, the hotels unable to adapt to this reborn industry could risk heading straight into yet another disaster. The Darwinian metaphor might be the most telling: businesses which no longer fit into a post-Covid-19 travel environment are doomed to slowly but surely become extinct.
Our focus in this article is to paint the most accurate representation of a post-pandemic travel industry. In order to give such an analysis, we need to dig into the most impactful consequences of the current crisis. Such brutal fallouts as massive layoffs and string of bankruptcies are proving to be the catalysts of this brand-new travel economy. On the altar of these cataclysms, only the most well-suited and efficient strategies will remain, which is why we aim to translate our analysis into concrete actions your hotel can take to stay on top.
Let us start with the facts. What exactly are the impacts of Covid-19 on the travel industry? The following list, far from exhaustive, is based on the major phenomena currently playing out:
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Huge layoffs across all hotels
This may be the most striking impact from the Covid-19 outbreak so far. At the end of April, half a million leisure and hospitality workers were let go of their function in the United States alone. Moving forward, it is expected that this number could reach 4 million layoffs worldwide.
Global fear among travelers
As the lockdown rules continue to evolve very differently from one country to the next, travelers are likely to be more and more cautious with regards to their destination. In addition to this, no one likes the prospect of falling ill in a foreign country. The predicted aversion to travel feels like a definite factor for years to come.
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The halting of travel marketing campaigns
As a logical follow up to this global freeze, OTAs and hotels alike have put on hold their marketing effort (even the hotel.com mascot is practicing social distancing in the coming months). Such a brutal halt will hold far reaching implications that we will cover later this article.
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Unprecedented revenue loss and occupancy rate drop
Perhaps the most obvious of these impacts is the conjoint drop of revenue and occupancy rate. Marriott communicated somewhere between 75% and 90% loss in revenue, which will unfortunately be what most hotels are facing, if not more.
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Chain reaction of bankruptcies
As a direct consequence to what was stated above, hotels are already starting to close down all around the world. In the US, according to Roger Dow, we might be looking 10%-15% of hotels going bankrupt (around 7000 hotels in total). In the rest of the world, predictions are also quite dire, for example 23% for Switzerland and almost 65% for Greece.
Even though it is hard to estimate the Covid-19 impacts on a global scale, Marriot CEO Arne Soreson stated that the outbreak was worse than 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis combined. As a reminder, according to IATA, it took three whole years for the travel industry to recover after 9/11. The following graph by the UNWTO gives an accurate picture of the situation: