Accor’s chief financial officer Martine Gerow said UAE activity was down around 80 percent year on year in April, before recovering to a decline of roughly 40 to 45 percent by June.
Chairman and chief executive Sébastien Bazin said guests are now booking hotels about seven days before arrival, compared with around 15 days before the conflict, as travellers wait for clarity.
A recovery in the fourth quarter is important, according to Marriott chief financial officer Jen Mason, as it accounts for 35 percent of annual revenue in the region.
Hilton’s full-year Middle East and Africa RevPAR is now expected to be down in the high single to low double digits, “supported by a strong start to the year before the conflict”.
Accor laid out two scenarios for the UAE. If trading stays at June’s roughly 40 percent decline through the second half, the group lands at the low end of its guidance. If there is a partial recovery, to around a 20 percent decline, it would put it at the midpoint.
For owners and developers, the picture splits by country. Gerow said Accor’s regional pipeline is overwhelmingly weighted to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, with only “a very low share” in the UAE, and signings have not slowed. “We haven’t seen a slowdown in signing in the Middle East,” she said, adding that group-wide signings were up 13 percent in the first half.
Hilton reported the same divergence. Chief executive Christopher Nassetta said that despite the conflict, “Middle East signings were up low single digits year over year”.
Accor’s Middle East CEO Duncan O’Rourke told AGBI in July that Dubai’s recovery would be likely to follow a similar path to that which followed Covid-19, with luxury bouncing back before rates catch up.
Consultants had already flagged the discounting risk.
Judith Cartwright, chief executive of hotel commercial strategy firm Black Coral Consulting, said in March that hotels should avoid a “price war” that could dent the emirate’s premium positioning in the long term.
By Josh Corder
